US Inflation Is Set to Reassure a Labor Market-Focused Fed

-- US inflation probably moderated at the end of the third quarter, reassuring a Federal Reserve that’s shifting more of its policy focus toward shielding the labor market.The consumer price index is seen rising 0.1% in September, its smallest gain in three months. Compared with a year earlier, the CPI probably rose 2.3%, the sixth-straight slowdown and the tamest since early 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue its CPI report on Thursday.

The CPI and producer price index are used to inform the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumer expenditures price index, which is set for release later this month.“We expect a subdued headline CPI in September, though a more robust core reading. Mapped into PCE inflation — the Fed-preferred price gauge — core inflation likely grew at a pace consistent with the 2% target.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to follow its August pivot to an easing cycle by trimming rates by a half percentage point, to 4.75%, when the board meets on Wednesday, as weakness in payroll data kindles labor market concerns. Japan gets wage statistics and household spending data, both of which are of interest to the newly installed government ahead of a general election at the end of the month.

In France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government is set to present its 2025 budget bill on Thursday, at a time when the country is struggling to tame its deficit. Fitch Ratings has scheduled the possible release of an assessment on the country for after the market close on Friday. Two Riksbank officials are scheduled to speak after the Swedish central bank delivered a third rate cut in September. Sweden’s monthly growth indicator will be published on Thursday.

Serbia’s central bank makes its monthly decision on Thursday, possibly continuing with monetary easing after a quarter-point cut in September.By the end of the week, third-quarter consumer price data for all five of Latin America’s big inflation-targeting economies will be in the books.

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