January Market Performance Could Predict 2024's Direction

January could set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly after an unusually weak December. The major averages fizzled at the finish line last year, following a monster performance. Though the S&P 500 gained 23% in 2024, it dropped 2.5% in December, a rare bit of weakness in what's usually a strong month for the broader index. A Santa Claus rally, in which stocks gain for each of the final five trading days of one year and the first two of the next, also failed to materialize.

January got off to a rocky start, with the S&P 500 sliding after giving up an earlier gain on Thursday. History shows what happens this month could be a sign of what's to come later in the year. According to Strategas, in the years when January is positive, the S&P 500 averages a 6.9% gain on a six-month forward basis. When it's negative, the index falls 0.6%. 'It's January's performance that has historically had a bigger impact on forward +6-month performance,' Chris Verrone, head of technical and macro strategy at the firm, wrote Thursday. 'Given the uptrend, the market deserves the chance to respond over coming weeks.' .SPX YTD mountain S&P 500 Whether the S&P 500 can rally here or move closer to support at 5,675 'remains to be seen,' Verrone said, though he noted sentiment could be more of a challenge given resistance is at 6,100. Investors should also pay close attention to market breadth, as a return in internal momentum is key to the rally, Verrone said. With just 20% of the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day moving averages, internal momentum appears nearly oversold, he added. That 'puts the market in the vicinity of a tradeable low,' per Verrone. January has a mixed performance in postpresidential election years. Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, noted the first calendar month typically starts out positive from a flood of inflows, before weakness creeps in through to the end of the month

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