Market Observations and Upcoming Economic Events

USD: Mar'25 is Down at 108.805. Energies: Feb '25 Crude is Down at 73.08. Financials: The Mar '25 30 Year T-Bond is Up 13 ticks and trading at 114.05. Indices: The Mar '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 36 ticks Higher and trading at 5925.50. Gold: The Feb'25 Gold contract is trading Up at 2672.10. This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Down which is not normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher.

The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed. Europe is trading mainly Lower with the exception of the Spanish Ibex exchange which is Higher. Possible challenges to traders ISM Manufacturing PMI is out at10 AM EST. This is Major. ISM Manufacturing Prices is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major. Wards Total Vehicle Sales - all day by brand. This is Major. Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major. FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 11 AM EST. This is Major. Traders,please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 year (ZN) to the 2 year (ZT). They work exactly the same. We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract

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