by the end of the year, pricing in a 94 percent chance of at least one cut and a 65 percent chance of two cuts by the December meeting. There’s still a 66 percent chance implied of a September rate cut, despite the political explosionon the fervor for rate cuts.
Bowman says that her baseline outlook “continues to be that U.S. inflation will return to the two percent goal” but immediately adds that this includes the view that the fed funds rate will hold at its current level “for some time.”become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said., which is just three months away.
Chair Jerome Powell participates in the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, DC, held on January 30-31, 2024. quickly deteriorating from her review of potential economic scenarios that could affect monetary policy. Instead, all of the deviation from her baseline was around upside risks to inflation.. Supply chains have normalized, labor force participation rates have leveled off, and wage-depressing migration across our southern border is likely to be curtailed.
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