German blue-chip stocks show more promise than their French counterparts, Barclays' strategists wrote in a note Friday, saying France has weak"long-term fiscal and growth fundamentals" and a looming risk of bond vigilantes sweeping in.
France's left-wing New Popular Front alliance has said it will table a vote of no confidence if Barnier tries to force through the budget — so the government may need to make concessions to the far-right National Rally party in order to pass the motion. However, if the government falls, that spread could widen toward 100 basis points and drive the CAC down by between 4% and 5%, they warned, and"bond vigilantes would likely step in the event of no stable government forming" or if the budget fails to pass.
Beyond the short-term budget debate, Barclays found medium-term risk asymmetry was"not great" for French markets, and that"concerns about political instability and long-term fiscal trajectory may persist."Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, is not convinced.
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