Market Analysis: IPOs and a Potential Santa Claus Rally

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Stock Market,Ipos,Philippines

This article analyzes the current Philippine stock market, noting the concentration of liquidity on a few stocks. It suggests a potential break-out from the resistance level of 6,740 before year-end, leading to a Santa Claus rally and a possible healthy market in 2025. The author also highlights upcoming IPOs in 2025, including GCash, Maynilad Water Services, Okada Manila, and Top Line Business Development Corporation.

This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.Watch out for the IPOs of exciting big-ticket issues in 2025, including GCash, Maynilad Water Services, Okada Manila, and Top Line Business Development Corporation

The intervals of trading losses and gains, especially week-on-week, have likewise changed into clockwork sequence, that while moving within the trading range of 6,450 to 6,750, a movement taken to mean as more of the market’s way of trying to find a bottom. Come to think of it, the market’s immediate support is estimated at 6,450 and resistance at 6,740.

Franco played with the figurative expression “the glass is half-empty or half-full” that compares an optimistic and pessimistic outlook on a situation. “Half-full” means an optimistic perspective, while “half-empty” means a pessimistic perspective. Franco believes that Trump appears to be more concerned about taking back manufacturing jobs because the pay is much better compared to service jobs, which few Americans want anyway. Moreover, US companies are in the constant quest for cutting costs to maximize profits. Outsourcing call centers, technical support, telemarketing and similar roles is still the easiest way to achieve them.

Aside from recommending investing in the market’s dogs is investment in REIT because interest rate is going down. Next are companies in the industrial sector whose businesses will benefit from the coming local elections next year. ERP stands for Equity Risk Premium. It is the additional return investors expect to receive for holding stocks over risk-free assets. The ERP compensates investors for the higher risk of investing in stocks. The amount of the premium can change based on the stock price and the company’s performance. High-risk stocks typically have higher premiums.

For the base-case scenario, economic activity is seen to accelerate closer to 6% as “economic data proliferates and mid-term elections provide tailwinds to consumption.” In particular, GDP is expected to grow by 5.8% and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas monetary policy to shift to neutral as in setting a 100-bps cut to 4.75% in 2025. The feared Trump 2.0 policy impact also proves to be less concerning to the country’s economy.

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