, noting – by their work – that the 50-day moving average for the SMH had now dropped below the 200-day moving average, which is not a positive technical development.Here’s a Worden chart which looks to be in slightly better technical shape for the semiconductor ETF:
While the conference call noted that AI demand remains “robust”, the HBM line is still thought to be a smaller product line for Micron from what I’ve read. When you search for HBM or what is otherwise known as SDRAM, Samsung, Advanced Micro Devices , that shows the stock trading below the late, 2000 high of $96 – $97.50, which was the blow-off top around end of the large-cap growth and tech bubble in 2000.
Within the VanEck Semiconductor ETF Nvidia currently sports a 19.4% weight, and still maintains the #1 weight in the ETF, while Micron is in the 10th spot in terms of ETF weight, and has a 3.7% weight currently.While technology has demonstrated strong outperformance the last 2 years, it’s the semiconductor sector which is the real leadership group within the technology sector.
When Microsoft came out this week, saying their “capex” will increase sequentially every quarter going forward, the stock fell again, and returned just +12.91% in calendar 2024, versus the’s +24.89% return. (Microsoft is another stock that returned 21% in the first 6 month of 2024, and then fell -7.4% from July 1 ’24 through 12/31/24.
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