As investors entered the holiday season sanguine over the Trump trade and the strong economy’s potential for producing good stock returns in this new year, industrials weren’t particularly high on many Santa analysts’ “nice” lists.
“I think industrials have been telling us for 18 months that we’ve been in a soft landing,” Verrone said. “Will it persist? If are going to deviate from the status quo, wouldn’t that involve the most consistent group at that time weakening? And we just haven’t seen it.” Perhaps a little too much confidence for the market. In announcing a 25-basis-point cut December 18, Powell nevertheless signaled the potential for less rate-cutting in 2025 than previously expected, sending downward a market with valuations reflecting more cuts.
In the ensuing holiday season, one without the usual Santa Claus rally, XLI dipped with the market but then, in the early days of 2025, bounced back a bit to post a 12-month gain of about 20%, as of Jan. 6. Confidence by industrial companies reflected by an increase in domestic spending of more than 50% over the last four years on manufacturing machinery and equipment, according to a study by Apollo using Census data. Industrial concerns must have spent all this money because of projections of higher demand.
The abundant availability of public energy, and a nascent trend of companies arranging proprietary power, including nuclear, to assure that they can fill orders expected to rise.The companies best able to capitalize on these trends of course include those with stronger positions from lower risk profiles.
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