A torrid, tech-led stock-market rally stalled out this past week as investors began to come around to what the Federal Reserve has been telling them.
Financial market participants this past week moved closer to pricing in what the Federal Reserve has been telling them: the fed-funds rate will peak above 5% and won’t be cut in 2023. Fed-funds futures as of Friday were pricing in a peak rate of 5.17%, and a year-end rate of 4.89%, noted Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, in a note.
The jump in short term yields was a message that appeared to rattle stock market investors, leaving the S&P 500 SPX with its worst weekly performance of 2023, while the previously surging Nasdaq Composite COMP snapped a streak of five straight weekly gains. “What I think is key for the next move in the market is, do the institutions wreck the retail sentiment before the retail sentiment wrecks the institutional bearishness?” Hackett said. “And my bet is the institutions are going to look and say, ‘hey, I’m a couple hundred basis points behind my [benchmark] right now. I’ve got to catch up and being short in this market is just too painful.”
Meanwhile, the hot labor market underscored by the January jobs report, along with other signs of a resilient economy are stoking fears the Fed may more work to do than even its officials currently expect.
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