The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, suggesting that the labour market was gradually slowing.
While the labour market is slowing, claims at current levels suggest employment growth remains strong, allowing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates one more time next month, before pausing the U.S. central bank’s fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s. Economists expect the effects to be felt in the months ahead and many are forecasting a recession by the second half of 2023.
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