The American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey has seen investors who are "pessimistic" in the 35%-45% range for weeks, far above the historic norm. The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey has been extremely pessimistic most of this year. The Commitment of Traders report, which looks at open interest in the S & P 500 E-Mini futures, has indicated very high short interest by non-commercial traders for weeks. We are talking about very high levels.
In the past, during periods when short interest was as elevated as this , the market was typically higher three months later. How much higher? About 4.8% higher, Johnson tells me. "When we have had high short positions like this in the past, we often see the markets move higher," he told me. One of the favorite indicators traders like to use is the "pain trade.
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