the economy growing at a 4.9 percent rate
in the third quarter. That’s likely to come down as more data hit the GDPNOW model. But many economists now think we are growing rapidly in the third quarter. J.P. Morgan Chase’s economists are forecasting a 3.5 percent growth rate. The professional forecaster survey had us growing at a 1.9 percent rate at its last release, which was all the way back in August. The New York Fed’s newly revived nowcast sees the economy growing at a 2.3 percent pace.
The Fed’s formal target for its benchmark rate is probably going to remain unchanged. Everything else, however, is due for
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