Analysis-Harsh reality of 'higher-for-longer' rates looms over US stocks

| Posted: 1 minutes ago | Updated: 1 minutes ago | 4 Min Read

Those concerns may be taking on fresh urgency after the Fed last week forecast it would leave rates elevated for longer than many investors were expecting. If history is any indication, higher rates are a less favorable environment for equity investors. An analysis by AQR Capital Management going back to 1990 showed U.S. equities returned an average of 5.4% over cash when rates were above their median level - as they are now - compared with a return of 11.5% when interest rates were below their median.

The current ERP level has historically translated to just a 1.3% average 12-month excess return of the S&P 500 over the 10-year Treasury, according to Lerner.

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Analysis-Harsh reality of 'higher-for-longer' rates looms over US stocksAs the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance boosts Treasury yields and slams stocks, some investors are preparing for more pain ahead. For most of the year, equity investors brushed off a rise in Treasury yields as a by-product of better-than-expected economic growth, despite worries that yields could eventually weigh on stocks if they rose too high. Those concerns may be taking on fresh urgency after the Fed last week forecast it would leave rates elevated for longer than many investors were expecting.
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