yet few attract the same level of attention as the halvings . Historically, halvings have proven to be important catalysts for bull markets, and while the rate of impact is decreasing, the upcoming halving is likely to prove important for bitcoin’s price formation.At K33, we expect speculators to yet again front-run the event, as they have in all past halving events.
Without a change in demand, the market cap should stay fixed. With 1.8% yearly inflation in the stock of bitcoin, the price must drop 1.8% for the market cap to stay the same. With 0.9% inflation, the drop would only need to be 0.9%. A doubling in price would be a significant move, but looking at the past halvings and popular predictions like the long-since debunked but still used, optimists are expecting a 10x price increase. This can not be explained by the halving in isolation, and will only happen if there is a massive increase in demand, which is actually not too unlikely.