Muni Market Faces Early Credit Problems as Covid Aid Sunsets

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Municipal Market Analytics,Credit Quality,Downgrades

(Bloomberg) -- Credit quality in the $4 trillion municipal bond market is showing early signs of pressure as federal pandemic aid winds down, spurring...

-- Credit quality in the $4 trillion municipal bond market is showing early signs of pressure as federal pandemic aid winds down, spurring expectations that the rapid pace of rating upgrades over downgrades in recent years will ease.The End of the Cheap Money Era Catches Up to Chelsea FC’s OwnerRevenue growth is slowing, and in states such as California tax and fee collections are dropping.

Conversely, the airport sector is showing strength, as are essential service providers such as water, sewer and electric utilities, said Peter Block, managing director for credit strategy at Ramirez & Co. He anticipates pockets of credit stress will arrive. Utilities have seen “a lot of downgrades,” while education, including charter schools, and healthcare currently have net downgrades by S&P, he said.

The vast majority of issuers “are well positioned to weather an economic downturn,” and more upgrades may occur given rating actions often lag, Nathan Will, head of municipal credit research at Vanguard Fixed Income Group, said in an email. Vanguard “would expect that the upgrade trend will slow as the economy cools and the remainder of pandemic aid is spent.

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