On December 5, 1996, Chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan offered that stock prices may be too high, thus risking a correction that could result in an economic fallout. He wondered out loud if the market had reached a state of “Over the past few months, we have seen the same term, irrational exuberance, used to describe the current state of the stock market. To gain perspective on the future, let’s compare the market environment that prompted Greenspan’s comments to today.
With such lofty projections came immense speculation. Investors were willing to pay more for corporate sales and earnings due to higher growth prospects. In other words, valuations rose. Keep in mind that despite Greenspan’s weariness of market conditions, he cut rates by 75 basis points in late 1998 over concerns related to the Long Term Capital Hedge Fund bankruptcy. His actions further fueled the market significantly higher.
Walking the tightrope between irrational exuberance and reality is complex. Therefore, appreciate the market for what it is. This bull market has no known expiration date. Active management, using technical and fundamental analysis along with macroeconomic forecasting, is crucial to managing the potential risks and rewards that lie ahead.
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