The bank’s Citi Economic Data Change index, which summarizes US macro data trends, is indicating further deterioration for the U.S. economy. A reading of -500, which suggests recession-like conditions, could be reached if data continues to worsen, Citi added.
"But even that level of earnings, if not somewhat lower, would still represent significant improvement over 2023,” strategists argued. They highlight that productivity and secular tailwinds support high-single to low-double-digit EPS growth in 2024. With these expectations intact, the recent correction from the index’s high has mitigated some valuation concerns.
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