The Fed’s vindicated by PCE data, as US stocks set to hit another record

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The Fed has been vindicated. The PCE report for August, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, moderated more sharply than expected last month to 2.2% from 2.5%, this is the lowest level since 2021.

The core PCE report rose a notch to 2.7% on an annualized basis, however, the monthly increase of 0.1% was half the rate expected by economists. Personal income and spending were both lower than expected, which suggests that the Fed made the right choice when deciding to cut interest rates by 50 basis points last week.

A lower dollar tends to be good news for risk sentiment, which has already been buoyed by China’s epic stimulus plan. The S&P 500 is on track to make a fresh record high today and could close the week above 5,800. Sovereign bond yields are lower across the US and Europe and overall, it’s been a very strong quarter for bonds.

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