Disappointing US economic data helped drive the 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.29% on Thursday, the lowest since 2017. Futures trading gathered pace amid mortgage-related hedging. The yield on the long bond also fell to the lowest since 2017, at 2.73%. Inflation expectations tumbled yet again, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index surged to its highest level this year before retreating.
“If investors’ worst fears are realized and there is a sharp longer-term ramp-up in the trade war, you could see yields fall further,” said Jon Hill, rates strategist at BMO Capital. “There’s a very bond bullish backdrop.” Also feeding the haven buying: Political tensions are elevated in the U.K., with the risk of a disorderly Brexit back on the radar.
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