A study says the global luxury goods market will shrink in 2025. Trump tariffs could make it worse

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Global sales of personal luxury goods are forecast to shrink next year for the first time since the Great Recession in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic. That's according to a new study by the Bain consultancy. It forecasts a 2% slowdown next year due to global turmoil and steep price hikes by brands.

FILE - Vintage Gucci bags are displayed inside the new on-line concept store, called Gucci Vault, in Milan, Italy, Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. MILAN — Global sales of personal luxury goods are forecast to shrink in 2025 for the first time since the, according to a Bain consultancy study released Wednesday. Its author said the outlook could worsen if the sector is hit by

Trump has pledged tariffs of up to 20% on imports, saying it would create factory jobs, shrink the federal deficit and lower food prices. Any negative impact could also be offset by moving production to the United States, or by higher sales to U.S. tourists in Europe. The sector made a speedy rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, surpassing 2019 sales by 2022, largely thanks to pent-up spending that was delayed by lockdowns. Even next year’s modest dip would leave the market 28% higher than it was in 2019, and two-and-a-half times larger than the Great Recession lows in 2008.

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