In August, the BLS revised 2024 employment growth lower by 818k jobs in its preliminary revision of its Current Employment Statistics (CES). Despite the substantial revision, more reductions to the official employment data are likely to come next month. In January, the BLS will release its final benchmark revision. The preliminary and final revisions to BLS data are done annually.
The revisions bridge the gap between the monthly BLS survey data used to report the initial data and data from each state’s unemployment insurance program. While the process produces more accurate results, it recently exposed the jobs market as weaker than investors appreciate.warns that the 2024 final CES could result in even more downward revisions. As their chart below shows, all but eight states will contribute to lower revisions. Per their press release: Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2024 were significantly different in 27 states compared with preliminary state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Early benchmark (EB) estimates indicated lower changes in 25 states, higher changes in two states, and lesser changes in the remaining 23 states and the District of Columbia. While the data revisions may not pique investors’ interest, they are important for asset prices. Simply, monetary policy has a significant influence on asset prices.that the market continues to trade sloppily heading into today’s FOMC meeting, and volatility is very low. The Fed is expected to cutfactor could be a discussion of pausing further rate cuts into next year, which could impact short-term market sentiment. That is a risk given the more excessive bullishness on display, with investors piling into stocks heading into year-end.Despite the many optimistic assumptions, breadth has been deteriorating noticeabl
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