Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor who uncovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator, says his model could some day give a false positive signal. It's something that's top of mind right now, as the curve has univerted in recent weeks. But Campbell argues his model isn't broken or flashing a false signal because the same conditions from prior economic downturns are also present now.
Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor who uncovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator, says his model could some day give a false positive signal. It's something that's top of mind right now, as the curve has univerted in recent weeks. But Campbell argues his model isn't broken or flashing a false signal because the same conditions from prior economic downturns are also present now.
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