Opinion: What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates

That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.307% has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.

Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually lower than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.

What about the Fed Funds rate? This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention.

Not when cheap debt is the only thing fueling them.

Okay

Virtual currency on the internet will destroy U.S. Treasury yields, eventually .

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