The contours of SA’s political and economic landscape are subtly shifting, and are likely to look fundamentally different come 2024. The ANC could well lose its majority in the election. With political competition from opposition parties remaining weak, the ANC is likely to retain the lion’s share of the vote and therefore remain at the centre of any new arrangement.
Southern African Venture Capital and Private Equity Association virtual conference, in which I participated. The discussion provoked a critical evaluation of where we are and where we are headed, but there was an absence of high-conviction views. The long and the short if it is that there is a divergence in political, institutional and economic trends. The pace and effects of these are varied, but they will come to a head.
In this context what the political configuration looks like becomes increasingly intriguing. Will the ANC align with the EFF, to which its radical economic transformation faction is more ideologically inclined, or will it consider a pragmatic coalition with the DA? Despite recent overtures from the DA, the vast ideological schism between itself and the ANC makes this outcome unlikely.
It is therefore conceivable to envisage a scenario where the political veers left and the economic pivots right, creating a seemingly irreconcilable tension. How then is this circle squared? This question becomes especially important in the context of SA’s fraying social contract. To be sure, the picture is bleak. The middle class and tax base are shrinking, extreme poverty is rising, and unemployment is at crisis levels.
In the same breath, public-private collaboration has improved, first in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic with initiatives such as Cobra and Spire , and now with the vaccine procurement. A market-friendly budget speech and changes to Regulation 28 have been well received, while progress in the energy, labour and telecoms sectors has provided further reason for business cheer.
“SA is neither falling into the abyss nor on the cusp of a big turnaround. In all its complexity the country finds itself somewhere in between.” In truth, it feels like we are walking a tightrope across the abyss. Not a pleasant way to invest (or live).
Reasons Why Not To Invest&Visit in South Africa: 1. Racist BBBEE laws 2. Corruption 3. Crime 4. Unfriendly labour legislation 5. Land Expropriation without compensation 6. No electricity 7 Illegal foreigners 8 City Name Changes(PortElizabeth)