With the Federal Reserve all but certain to begin raising interest rates in March, market prognosticators have been quick to reassure investors that history shows stocks tend to do just fine as policy makers embark on a monetary policy tightening cycle.It turns out that...
The median gain during the first year of a slow cycle was 13.4% versus 2.4% for fast cycles. The median maximum drawdown in slow cycles was 11%, compared with 12.1% for fast cycles. Some Fed watchers see a faster pace than that, and fed-funds futures traders have increasingly priced in the prospect of policy makers kicking off the cycle with a half-point rate increase rather than the typical quarter-point, or 25 basis point, move.
That isn’t a criticism, she said. Rather it merely reflects just how difficult it is to make accurate rate predictions. New York Life Investments, for its part, looks for four quarter-point rate increases in 2022, possibly frontloaded. That hasn’t happened yet, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect fears aggressive Fed tightening could throw the economy into recession, some analysts say. Others offer a more benign interpretation, with the flattening reflecting expectations a quick response by the Fed will help wrestle down inflation without requiring rates to rise to eye-watering levels.
That will change when there are clearer signs the economy is simply decelerating, which is when more broad level asset class considerations play a bigger role in determining outcomes for investors, she said.
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