JONATHAN LEVIN AND ANDREA FELSTED: Defensive stocks are paying off — but it gets trickier from here

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Staples stocks have outperformed their consumer discretionary peers by the widest margin in two decades

The threat of US stagflation has investors treating supermarkets and other consumer staples companies like the high-flying tech stocks of yesteryear. The shares have trounced their consumer discretionary peers by the widest margin in two decades, and the outperformance probably has room to continue.

In a recession, staples usually retrench eventually, just not as much as other sectors. But most doomsayers think a US recession — if one comes — is more likely to occur in 2023 or 2024. Staples powered through roughly the first half of the Great Recession before fading eventually. This has not shown up much in first-quarter earnings, though Unilever, whose brands include Dove soap and Ben & Jerry’s ice-cream, did see a fall in the amount of goods. But private-label sales are starting to gain traction, according to data provider IRI. If this trend gathers momentum, it could eventually cut the sales volume of Nestlé’s Nespresso coffee capsules or P&G’s Pampers nappies.

Dollar General and Dollar Tree not only carry inexpensive wares, but their pricing schemes aid consumers on a budget. They also look a lot more like supermarkets these days than simply cheap retailers, with a broad line of food. The digital couponing trend on TikTok — essentially influencers showing consumers how to combine coupons for big savings — is also driving free advertising.

The biggest danger to investors therefore lies not in the bargain basement but the squeezed middle. Some signs of this are already playing out.

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