. The S&P/TSX Composite and world stocks should rise double digits, 15 to 35 per cent – maybe more. Why? How? While pessimism reigns from Kitchener to Kamloops, that naysaying negativity makes it easier for expectations to be exceeded by forces now in play. Whenever dour expectations exceed later realities, securities eventually rise.
In a September column in this newspaper, I wrote how U.S. “midterm magic” election power could propel stocks in late 2022 and into 2023. Since October it has worked okay, for the. Statistically, its positivity overwhelms. The magic rolls right into the third year of presidents’ terms . The S&P 500 hasn’t suffered a negative third year of any president’s term since 1939, when the Second World War started , averaging 18 per cent plus returns, in U.S. dollars, since good data started in 1925.
Hence, don’t expect the TSX to lead this global bull run. Canada’s sector makeup –notably the heavy energy overweight – kept the TSX’s maximum 2022 decline to minus 16.3 per cent versus the world’s minus 21.6 per cent. Note Canadian oil and gas firms surged. While these companies aren’t overstretched the way U.S. energy firms were after the mid-2010s shale boom, oil’s swift price reversal presents headwinds. Outperforming during the bear, they likely lag somewhat on the rebound.
Banks borrow short-term to finance long-term loans. They should be hit by falling long-term interest rates affecting future loan profitability. The reason,, is that the inflation-phobia will fade in 2023. That takes pressure off those long-term interest rates. So they should fall, reversing much of their bonds’ putrid 2022 performance.
believe it when I see it.