Investment bank forecasts LLMs could put 30M jobs at risk

, in partnership with Microsoft. Impressively aping human language and even producing working computer code, LLMs are at the centre of a media frenzy right now.

Impressive though they often are, any notion that they think or understand what they are saying is false, given their reliance on a statistical analysis of a large corpus of text. Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs sees a significant disruption to the global jobs market, with around 300 million full-time equivalent workers in large global economies at risk, according to economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani, who wrote the paper.

On the upside, investment in LLMs in the workplace is set to create a much-needed fillip for productivity. Over 10 years, generative AI could produce a $7 trillion boost to global GDP. To get the benefits though, organizations need to invest. The Goldman report said that, assuming it followed similar trends to software investment in the 1990s, US spending on workplace LLMs and the surrounding tools could hit 1 percent of US GDP by 2030, amounting to about $230 billion, based on current figures.

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