Mortgage industry folks like me are right there with the Realtors. We are suffering. The last 18 months have been horrible. Any mortgage worker telling you otherwise is clearly full of hot air.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if mortgage rates hit 7.5% before the end of the year,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. “Revolving debt has increased at a 15% clip, that’s $150-$160 billion in added credit card debt since the pandemic. Savings rates dropped significantly, maybe 15-20% range now in the single digits.
“The number of hours worked is down. Employment will turn negative by the end of the year. The total number of employed will be lower. Companies will be shredding,” said Sfeir. “We’ll see a mild slowdown and mild recession in the first half of next year as the government giveaways will have run out.”
From peak to trough Zandi sees home prices dropping 7% to 8%. “Housing is unaffordable. Affordability needs to be restarted by lower mortgage rates, lower prices and more income,” he said. My prediction? I think the inventory of homes for sale will be 20%-25% higher next year compared with this year due to job and earnings losses. I see mortgage rates at 7.25% by the end of this year, dropping to 5.75% by the end of 2024.The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.81%, 3 basis points higher than last week. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.11%, 5 basis points higher than last week.