Worried that Jerome Powell might smash stocks lower on Friday when he steps up to the microphone in Jackson Hole, Wyo.? Good news: Last year’s market-crushing speech was an outlier, according to an analysis by Bespoke Investment Group.
Bespoke measured the size of the index’s move during the first two days of the symposium. The S&P 500 fell 2.01% during this period last year, according to its data. Typically, Jackson Hole begins on a Thursday during the last full week in August, with the Fed chair delivering keynote remarks on Friday, usually around 10 a.m.One exception was 2020, when Powell delivered his remarks remotely, shortly before the U.S. stock market opened.
If there’s one period of reliable weakness surrounding Jackson Hole, it’s the Monday after the event. The S&P 500 has fallen 0.1% on average since 1978 during these trading sessions, but that figure swells to a 0.4% average drop if one only includes years where the S&P 500 has risen 10% year to date ahead of the speech.
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