Some of the most overvalued housing markets in the country are those that are at the highest risk of climate-related damage, an expert has toldExtreme weather events such as hurricanes, tornados, floods, and wildfires, which regularly strike vulnerable states like Florida and California, are expected by scientists to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. This, in turn, is likely to expose homes in higher risk states to more severe damage more often.
Experts at DeltaTerra Capital, a climate-risk intelligence firm for institutional real estate investors, toldthat about 19 percent of the single-family home market that has high exposure to flooding or wildfire is overvalued by 18 to 30 percent. A man stops in front of his house as a creek overflows from flooding following Hurricane Ian on September 30, 2022, in Kissimmee, Florida. Climate change is expected to be reflected in the housing market as severe weather events increase.This has created a bubble which,"given today's roughly $40 trillion in value outstanding the overvaluation conditions [noted above], translates to $1.3 trillion to $2.
Of the largest 100 metropolitan statistical areas in the country, also known as MSAs, the most overvalued markets are Cape Coral/Fort Myers in Florida from a flood perspective, and Riverside/San Bernardino in California when potential wildfires are taken into account, according to DeltaTerra. As insurance companies have started pulling out of both California and Florida in the past year, with many citing the higher risk of damaging extreme weather events as a reason, these markets are likely to be repriced, according to Burt—a phenomenon that is already happening.
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