‘s August read of the U.S. manufacturing sector, derived from a survey of so-called purchasing managers, came in worse than expected. The sector contracted for the fifth straight month, the 21st contraction in the last 22 months.The index tracking new orders—a key measure of demand—fell 2.8 percent in August from July, and the production index declined as well.
Slower than expected sales are causing warehouses to fill with unsold stock, and a dearth of new orders has prompted factories to cut production for the first time since January. Producers are also reducing payroll numbers for the first time this year and buying fewer inputs amid concerns about excess capacity.
The official analysis of the PMI reports typically goes out of its way to avoid overt political interpretation but this month’s commentary from industry makes it clear thatare depressing demand. Keep in mind that one of the biggest new sources of “uncertainty” around the election has been Harris’s rise in the polls following the successful campaign to pressure Joe Biden to drop out of the race.
“New order intake is sluggish at best. Interestingly, even though orders are down, inquiries are up. Customers have indicated capital has been approved for equipment purchases, but they were directed to put projects on hold until the fourth quarter of 2024. This indicates the uncertainty around the election. We anticipate a strong end of the year, with a rise in backlog going into 2025,” a machinery products executive said.
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