ORLANDO, Florida, Nov 5 - When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues meet this week to discuss their next interest rate move, they'll face a much more complicated situation than they did only two months ago, due to the historic rise in long-dated Treasury yields since the central bank's jumbo rate cut on Sept. 18.
But it likely also reflects the solid economic growth and sticky inflation indicators seen in the United States since September, which have raised doubts about the wisdom of the Fed's decision to start its easing cycle with a cut of 50 bps. What happens if this belief in the Fed's 'control' is challenged, and what might the central bank do to avoid this crisis of faith?Treasury yields are elevated, but not frighteningly so. The 10-year yield is currently around 4.30%, and the 30-year yield is near 4.50%.
U.S. markets are currently a long way from Constan's worst-case scenario, but what he's highlighting is how quickly things could unravel. But this hawkish pivot may not come naturally to Chair Powell, who has struck a dovish tone in his public comments over much of the last two years, even as the Fed was raising rates.While U.S. GDP growth remains solid, cracks are starting to appear in the labor market. The paltry 12,000 jobs added in October may primarily reflect one-off exogenous events, but the previous months' totals were revised down as well, indicating weakening conditions.
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