Natural gas prices extended a months-long decline on Monday—falling to the lowest level in nearly two years as analysts expect the unseasonably warm winter could continue to depress the market for natural gas in the coming weeks, ultimately keeping prices below recent highs for at least another year.... [+]U.S. natural gas prices fell 5% to less than $2.70 Monday morning—pushing losses more than 72% below an August high of roughly $9.
"The next U.S. gas bearish cycle is here," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Samantha Dart wrote in a weekend note to clients, noting an"exceptionally warm" January—with average temperatures at the highest level in 15 years—has helped dissipate winter-related risks to supply and push prices down by more than 50% over the past month alone.
Though the analysts acknowledge the selloff appears"overdone," particularly with higher gas demand expected over the coming weeks, they still believe warmer weather forecasts or disappointing demand could push gas prices further down. With supply expected to remain healthy, Goldman ultimately projects prices could fall below $2 and remain in a bear market through at least next summer, keeping prices below $3.85 and likely not going back above $4 until 2025.As more power plants phased out coal use, natural gas prices skyrocketed during the pandemic—more than quadrupling between April 2020 and August 2022.
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