US labor market cooling; leading indicator flashes recession

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The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, suggesting the labor market was gradually slowing as the Federal Reserve's year-long interest rate hiking campaign dampens demand.

activity in heightening the risks of a recession as soon as the second half of the year. Banks have tightened lending, which could make it harder for households and small businesses to access credit. A measure of future economic activity plunged to the lowest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in March, other data showed on Thursday.

The combination of spring breaks and people who have exhausted their severance packages following a rush of layoffs in the technology sector and other areas of the economy sensitive to interest rates, could account for part of the rise in claims last week. Unadjusted claims dropped 7,021 to 228,216 last week as a surge of 6,703 in applications in New York and an increase of 3,079 in Georgia as well as notable rises in Connecticut and Rhode Island were offset by decreases in California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Ohio.

In a separate report on Thursday, the Conference Board said its Leading Economic Index dropped 1.2% in March to the lowest level since November of 2020. Manufacturing is also feeling the heat of higher borrowing costs, with a fourth report from the Philadelphia Fed showing its measure of factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region plunging to the lowest level in nearly three years in April.Despite cracks in the labor market, economists did not expect widespread job losses. As such, most anticipated a short and mild recession.

Data next week on people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, will offer more clues on the state of the labor market in April.

 

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Duh.

BIDENFLATION BIDENFLATION BIDENFLATION

Is this not the goal of increasing interest rates? seems like moderate cooling of the labor market is exactly the outcome the Fed is looking to accomplish. Otherwise, what's the point of all the rate hikes?

340 million supported by 125 million workforce. Consumers two years in debt on charge cards

Great, so we'll have more unemployed and still have higher food prices (because of greed of corporations), and Republican cut food benefits.

It has something to do with call inflation

It's being cooled to suppress wages. Another reason they're bringing back child labour. You can replace adults with kids and pay them less. Corporations like a robust supply of desperate people willing to take any pay to make the profit machine go brrrr.

if our government worried about the basics, instead of worrying about transgender‘s and abortions the economy would be in better shape

Every individual participate in the job market already has 3-4 part time jobs, not possibly to get more unless they work with 1-2 hours of sleep which is sadly the economy we are in…

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