How financial-market players are thinking about a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury note soon

There’s a debate going on in financial markets over if and when the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield will get to 5%, with bond traders leaning toward such a scenario unfolding in a matter of weeks.

Getting to that 5% mark essentially requires more selling by investors of the 10-year government note, at a time when stocks have also lost ground. Dow industrials DJIA have erased their 2023 gains as yields climbed on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 SPX has seen its year-to-date gain shrink to around 12% as of Wednesday afternoon.

“What I think we are seeing — whether its 5% on 30-year bonds or a 20-year Treasury yield near 5.2% earlier in the day, or a 10-year rate briefly above 4.8% — is that people are looking at these levels and finally coming out of the weeds to put cash to work,” said William O’Donnell, a U.S. rates strategist at Citigroup C, -0.89% in New York.

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