Instant view: China's Q3 GDP grows 4.9% y/y, beats market forecast

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Grandpere’s love builds a Viking ship in West Pubnico | SaltWire - China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip in the third quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Wednesday, suggesting the recent recovery may carry enough steam to reach Beijing's full-year growth target.

Chinese stocks were muted after the GDP data release. Both the Shanghai Composite index and the blue-chip CSI 300 Index were down about 0.5% in early morning trading."The data was stronger than expected, putting China on track to reach the government's target of 5% growth. Retail sales improved, though markets are still cautious of the recovery with the yuan still trading close to the weak end of PBOC's fixing band.

"The key question is the pace of recovery. Will it be strong or weak? The property market is a big problem that won't be solved in the near term. We should be expecting 4% or 5% growth to be maintained in China this year and next year.""The upbeat China data continues to point to signs of stabilisation in the economy and reinforces our view of a glass half full. This should help to keep Asian FX supported while the U.S. dollar trades on a backfoot.

"However, the global impact remains an issue for its growth amid weakened demands, pressure on its exports, and geopolitical tensions sparked by the wars.""China's economy is flickering back to life...some of the headlines in recent months have exaggerated the weakness, as there have consistently been green shoots – consumer demand, car sales, etc. Overall, there's still a lot of momentum coming through, putting the government's target of around 5% within reach.

"July numbers were even worse than the August and the September numbers, so they're probably past the worst, but this is not a rapid recovery. We still think authorities in China need to do some more policy stimulus.""The strong set of China macro data suggests that the year's 'around 5%' official growth target will likely be reached. Monthly PMI data had indicated a slight strengthening of economic activity over the third quarter.

 

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