Ether Could Continue to Underperform Bitcoin as U.S. Bond Market 'Dis-Inversion' Resumes

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Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.

That's an apparent signal from the U.S. Treasury government bond market, where the gap between yields on the 10- and three-month notes has resumed the recovery higher toward zero in a move known as dis-inversion, or steepening, in bond market parlance.

Since early this year, crypto prices have had an inverse relationship with the above-mentioned yield spread, gaining ground during inversion and losing value with dis-inversion. While bitcoin's 90-day inverse correlation with the yield spread has weakened to -0.42 from -0.8 in the first half, ether's remains strong near -0.75,

Yield spread refers to the difference between yields of differing debt offerings, such as bonds or other fixed-income assets.The spread has dis-inverted, or risen, by 29 basis points to -0.65% in the past seven days to the highest since early January, data shows. The ascent has more than reversed the brief inversion from -0.80% to -0.94% seen early this month.

The spread between 10-year and three-month yields is one of the most widely tracked sections of the yield curve. The negative spread has historically been viewed as a precursor to economic recessions, with eventual dis-inversion/steepeningThe spread fell by 130 basis points to -1.92 in the year's first five months. Most of bitcoin and ether's year-to-date gains of 72% and 32% happened in the year's first half.

The spread between the 10- and two-year notes, another widely followed bond market gauge, has also dis-inverted by nearly 70 basis points to -0.34% in three months,The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a.

 

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