The Inversion of Investment Portfolios

Early in my investment management career, I was taught to design long-term investment portfolios as a pyramid. A solid foundation of secular and structural positions, with a much smaller opportunistic and tactical top. In other words, construct a durable structure that could mostly resist unsettling market volatility and navigate economic and geopolitical shakes.

Today, this once-reassuring construction seems to have become gradually inverted: a shrunken secular and structural base now has to support a larger opportunistic and tactical top. It is one that, having proved extremely resilient, is now fuelling a debate between those worried about bubbles and those comfortable that structural reinforcements are just around the corner. Secular investments play out over time, powered by a maturation of the underlying return drivers that provide for greater investor adoption. It is the sort of process that is now being demonstrated by artificial intelligence-focused chipmaker Nvidia, which has become the market’s darling. The underlying driver there is the potential for large-scale application of an innovation in which the company holds a dominant role at present. The turbo charger of its stock price is the change in its shareholder base from a few highly sophisticated investors to wider buying by the investing public

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