Companies seem to have done a lot of hiring in March, and if Friday's jobs report is as strong as expected, it could go a long way towards reducing speculation that a recession is coming and that the Fed will have to cut interest rates to stop it.
"It's an important number. I will wave an all clear banner if the number's good," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays. Gapen expects 175,000 jobs, wage growth of 0.2 percent and a lower unemployment rate, at 3.7 percent. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, expects just 165,000 payrolls and said the unusual circumstances that hit jobs in February could continue to impact employment data."A lot of it was the loss in construction and February was another polar vortex month, so some of that should just come back. There was noise from the government shutdown," she said of February.
The March employment report comes as some data has started to look better, like the closely watched ISM manufacturing survey, rebounding in March more than expected. The latest unemployment claims at 202,000 were the lowest since 1969, and , existing home sales rose 11.8 percent in February. Auto sales also improved in March, but February's retail sales showed another month of softer than expected spending by consumers, a worrying sign.
But markets took the Fed's dovishness as a sign the economy could be in even worse shape and the Fed would have to actually cut rates in 2019 to prevent a recession. The White House also is calling for a half percentage point rate cut, even though most economists are not forecasting rate cuts this year.
or, it could? say it now...
Not my fears