OPEC+ decision to increase oil supply is a 'bearish surprise' for the market, Goldman says

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OPEC+ decision to lay out a detailed plan to increase production puts downward pressure on Brent crude oil prices, Goldman said.

The detailed plan laid out by

meeting has increased downside risk for Goldman's Brent forecast of $75 to $90 per barrel, Dan Struyven, head of oil research at the investment bank, told clients in a note after the Sunday meeting. The decision to increase supply comes as global oil inventories have risen more than expected recently, expanding by an average 900,000 barrels per day over the past three months, according to Goldman.

plan difficult to reverse The is adding supply to meet the group's forecast that demand will grow by 2.2 million bpd in 2024, said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. But it is far from clear that OPEC has set the correct supply and demand targets. Struyven described OPEC's forecast as "very bullish," with Goldman forecasting demand growth of 1.5 million bpd in 2024. Meanwhile, the U.S. is on course to produce a record amount of oil this year, Lipow told CNBC.

 

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