to cut interest rates before their September policy meeting:"To do an emergency cut would give the completely wrong signal to the marketplace."That's Josh Lipton live from our New York City headquarters.
So I think that's all coming unglued and, uh, I think it's a lot of margin calls and I think it's going to happen pretty quick and, uh, the unwind should be over by the end of the week.We, we very well might already be in it.Um, and what we're seeing now in, in, especially the unemployment rate, it does look like what you would normally see in early stages of, of recession.
And the other thing that we've been, well, a couple of other things we've been watching closely, we've been watching the 10 year yield, which earlier was down much more at one point, it was positive now is negative again. And you really see an unwinding here when we look at the mag seven at one point early this morning, around the lows had been down by the most ever.We're not gonna know until we have confirmation over the coming days and weeks.But again, it's really in the early innings, wanna check out our leaders here because Bitcoin is the worst off today of everything.
And the question is, will they simply run themselves out or will they result in something even worse? So, what we're living through right now are these three blinking red lights and we need them to turn yellow and then green Mohammed.Uh Mohammed to me that listen, if what we're seeing continues like this and we got, you know, another flat reading in the CP I or P CE, then he did think an intermediate cut um and a super size one, by the way, 50 would be on the table.Because I think that would signal panic, it would signal total panic.
Excuse me, they were comparing this to 1987 right where you see a Black Monday event, but that wasn't in fact followed by a recession, not for a few years.Is that the best sort of analogy for what we're seeing?Um Today, unfortunately, because the fed became so backward looking and the Fed has lost a lot of credibility in the last few years.
Now a federal judge has ruled the company's payments to make its search engine the default on smartphone browsers actually violates us antitrust law and this decision coming down just in the last few minutes here as we try to figure out what exactly uh are the implications of that. Yeah, $26 billion in payments total here is what we're talking about and the judge in the case, judge Amit Mehta writing in his ruling, Google is a monopolist and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly.This is one of the most significant ones and um one would think it will be um it, it will be pushed back upon by Google, but we'll end up seeing what happened, what happens the stock did fall to the of the session or toward back towards the lows of the session.
And so I think that's really interesting and, and when you look at the, the carry trade where people borrow cheaply in the end to potentially buy large cap technology issues, uh some of that has been alleviated. And a lot of these fear gauges when you look at just traditional sediment polls have turned very negative in a very short period of time.
And now with a big breakdown in the dollar that eventually is going to start to aid emerging markets when we can see a little bit of stabilization to this mark.And that's crypto you guys, your firm has been Big bs notably on Bitcoin and one of the thesis with Bitcoin, is it being quote unquote digital gold is that people should flow into it at a time like this.
And if anything, you know, ahead of digital assets, uh, Sean Farrell remains very constructive and, and, you know, my own thinking is that I don't see much more deterioration beyond really the mid to high forties and I think we will bottom and we can pull out of this, but it is going to be important for look the broader risk asset space to stabilize.
You know, you look at nvidia's four pe now of 26 very reasonable, you know, ahead of the Fed and of course set to cut as many as five times over the next four months. The next generation has started and our production is on track to ramp in the second half beyond that.In the meantime, NVIDIA shares are down some 25% since their record high in June 18th.
We're gonna be right back with more market domination on the other side, Wall Street, sell off intensifying to start the week declines hitting every sector with oil sliding to a new seven month low on signals of faltering demand in the US. Yeah, I think it's really important to put it into context for our industry because we were coming off of record highs last year, especially in terms of refining margins and gas prices.
And I think that really reflects the decisions that we're making around our portfolio and investments and continuing to drive efficiency across our business. Having low cost, reliable energy is one of the things that really drives economic growth and pulls people out of poverty.And then overall oil demand is a feedstock that's used for industrial capabilities like chemicals.
And so just as an example, pioneer has a remote logistics operations that Exxonmobil has now taken on and added into our remote wells and completions operations.We are starting to utilize what is a very large water recycling infrastructure in the Midland Basin that pioneer brings to the table. So we feel like the integration planning and execution is going really well and that we can already see the opportunity for more synergies than we laid out at the time that we originally announced the acquisition.A and Kathy finally, I feel like I gotta ask you a guy in a question as well.It looks like at least to mid 2025.
So the large take has been sort of something that you guys have obviously already talked about on the show.You could really probably even go back to last Friday's jobs report saying that also was partially what is weighing on markets, right?What I thought was interesting that I heard from two different strategists though was essentially that when you look at what's being pulled down the most, it's the most crowded trades.
And, and, and I also wonder though when you think about them, we talk about these big tech stocks in that group all the time, right?And they surprise and their earnings are going up, like, does that tell me that the other stocks are going to monetize their A I strategy? Well, I think when you look at health care, you tend to want to gravitate towards the more defensive sectors in a period like this within biotech, there are defensive aspects but they're non defensive aspects.
Vertex um is looking to build a cancer vertical and also looking to go into kind of innovative spaces in autoimmune disorders and others. So has Amgen to that point and um and now we're seeing Regen run have to do it So we've seen this with the large BioPharma or even just large farmers when they get to a point where they're too concentrated, they do have to work on diversification here.
And so some companies, some large companies like Amgen have gone out and been acquiring tools that they're bringing in house to, you know, quicken development, lower time to um market, therefore, lower costs, but also go after un drug targets, right?Um And so you've seen several large pharma come in that way and, and then you're seeing this emergence of a group that are calling themselves tech bio and they really are tech companies and drug companies that have kind of merged and...
So the judge says they're not liable, Google, not liable as an anti competitive violator for what it would be targeting.The judge also said that there's no product market for general search advertising. And so if Google is the best, a lot of those revenue streams could disappear to some of these say browser manufacturers or Android platform uh creators that uh that they won't easily be able to replace through uh other other streams of income.
And the new competitors from A I I think are putting even more pressure on this type of this business model.
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