prices quadrupled from roughly $3 to over $12 per barrel. This oil price shock was based on a net disruption in the global supply of crude oil that amounted to less than 4% during approximately three months.
Because of the narrowness of the shipping lanes and the peculiar geography of this waterway, Iran can easily shut the Strait of Hormuz for many months through mining, sinking of ships , rocket launches, and drone strikes on ship traffic.
In an all-out war against Israel, Iran would not only be fighting against Israel but against the United States, which is firmly committed to Israel’s defense. In an all-out military confrontation against Israel, the US, and other allies, Iran would be decisively and disastrously defeated. Such a defeat would endanger the very existence of the current Islamic regime.
Iran does not need to fire a single shot at Israel in order to defend itself. By cutting off the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can blackmail the entire world into pressuring Israel to end its conflict with Iran. This is almost certain to be Iran’s strategy in the event of an all-out war with Israel.
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