Jeran Wittenstein and Ryan VlastelicaSenior research analyst at Rosenblatt Securities Hans Mosesmann shares his hot picks in semiconductor stocks; Nvidia, AMD and Intel.
That’s because there are varying views on Wall Street about what to expect from the company’s newest product line, Blackwell. Nvidia has said that the new chips will contribute several billion dollars in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, while Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang described demand for the chips as “insane.” But production delays have made modeling supply — a notoriously difficult task — even harder.
That’s what Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore is anticipating and why he’s calling Wednesday’s results a “transitional” quarter. Nvidia is likely to give a conservative forecast that’s only slightly ahead of the average analyst estimate, which should satisfy most investors as long as everything points to a very strong full-year Blackwell ramp, Moore wrote.
However, with a history of beating estimates in a big way, thanks to unbridled demand for its accelerator chips, Nvidia may need to do more than provide assurances that Blackwell’s ramp up remains strong. In the past five quarters, Nvidia sales have beaten consensus by an average of about $1.8 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“It can’t just beat the consensus, but also the whisper-type numbers that people are looking for,” he said. “If it disappoints, we can easily see it come off 10% or so.”
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