The 10-year Treasury yield is looming as a potential anchor on stocks

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A move above 4.5% for the 10-year Treasury yield could foreshadow a decline for the price of stocks and bonds.

The runup in the 10-year Treasury yield is proving to be more than a short-term fluctuation, and that is starting to draw nervous looks on Wall Street. The benchmark yield was trading at about 4.41% on Wednesday. That is up from around 4.3% right before the presidential election, and well above the 3.6% level that it flirted with in September. Bond yields move opposite of price.

10-year yield has risen ~14 since the election and could potentially rise further with President-elect Trump likely to pursue a large reconciliation bill next year with various fiscal spending priorities. While we believe markets are expecting this fiscal policy change, any unexpected surprises could put upward pressure on long term interest rates," Senyek continued. A basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage points. If the 10-year yield does break through the 4.

 

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