David Rosenberg: Don't see a recession bear market? Here, try these glasses on

  • 📰 VancouverSun
  • ⏱ Reading Time:
  • 42 sec. here
  • 2 min. at publisher
  • 📊 Quality Score:
  • News: 20%
  • Publisher: 61%

Brasil Notícia Notícia

Brasil Últimas Notícias,Brasil Manchetes

Don't see a recession bear market? Here, try these glasses on — via financialpost

I find it strange, and perhaps even a tad disingenuous, that the same bulls who shouted, “don’t fight the Fed!” when the market was going asymptotic to the upside are now telling people to fight the United States Federal Reserve on the other side of the mountain. To these folks, it’s as if economic and market cycles don’t exist.

But, you see, 70 per cent of that three-year bull market was due to the expanded P/E multiple — “animal spirits” — while earnings growth was a two-bit player, accounting for the other 30 per cent. Historically, those relative contributions are reversed. Had that been the case, the S&P 500 would have peaked at the beginning of this year closer to 3,600 rather than 4,800.

Besides, inflation has put real disposable personal income, close to 80 per cent of the economy, into a recession of its own, contracting in six of the past seven months, and at a -4.5-per-cent annual rate. As sure as night follows day, consumer spending will follow suit. The Fed is going to do its best to reverse the situation, but the medicine will not be very tasty, as the inflation shock gets replaced by an interest rate shock.

 

Obrigado pelo seu comentário. Seu comentário será publicado após ser revisado.
Resumimos esta notícia para que você possa lê-la rapidamente. Se você se interessou pela notícia, pode ler o texto completo aqui. Consulte Mais informação:

 /  🏆 49. in BR

Brasil Últimas Notícias, Brasil Manchetes

Similar News:Você também pode ler notícias semelhantes a esta que coletamos de outras fontes de notícias.

David Rosenberg: Don't see a recession bear market? Here, try these glasses onThe S\u0026amp\u003BP 500, historically, has gone down 30 per cent in recession bear markets
Fonte: nationalpost - 🏆 10. / 80 Consulte Mais informação »