Is the stock market already pricing in a recession? What the S&P 500's tumble shows.

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Analysts often point to this year’s rout in stocks as evidence that a recession already has been “priced in,” frequently without pinpointing what that entails.

That’s a key question on the minds of investors as the Federal Reserve works to dramatically raise interest rates in a bid to stamp out painfully high levels of inflation, a quest Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned in August could hurt households and businesses.

“Of course, equities have already gone some way to pricing in a recession, and we think that this should limit the extent of further losses,” Daniel Grosvenor, director of global equity strategy at Oxford Economics, wrote in a Wednesday note. “Everyone can cherry-pick the data to confirm their prior beliefs, and investors are left ‘in the waiting place,’ wondering if the recession is ongoing, already past, or in the future,” said Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist at StoneX, in a client note.

 

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Who says this will be a mild recession? So we have a range from 2730 - 3160 on average. Is this a recession or will it be a depression? I say we test March 2020 lows where the market should actually be at. Slow grind down. Markets will call bottoms until we capitulate

日銀が介入して市場にドルが出回れば株は助かるのでは?

No it can’t be priced in, at least not correctly. The market drop yesterday shows just how much is not priced in because people continue to cling to the idea we can go to the world before Covid. The market needs to re -sort itself. No one knows the future have to notice change

Thanks MarketWatch ! A suggestion: remove the paywall of some papers so one can see the true quality of content. Cheers !

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