and notched its best monthly gain in about seven years in November, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon slow the pace of its interest rate hikes bolstered the case for investors betting on emerging market currencies.
Emerging market currencies have outperformed their developed market counterparts this year, with MSCI’s index of emerging market currencies down 5% year-to-date, while the dollar’s G10 peers have lost nearly twice as much. Some emerging markets offer attractive yield even adjusted for inflation. For instance, the inflation-adjusted yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasuries is at 1.08%, compared with 6.07% for the Brazilian equivalent.Investors have cheered the prospect of a shift in China’s COVID-19 policy, after rare street protests increased pressure on officials to ease some rules.
McIntyre has been increasing exposure to some Asian currencies, including the Thai baht and the Malaysian ringgit. Thailand’s currency rose 8% in November, while the ringgit has appreciated 6%. Investors broadly expect the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points next week, after a spate of 75 basis-point rate increases.
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