Analysis: G7 Russian oil price cap evolves from revenue squeeze to market anchor

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When U.S. officials first floated the idea of capping Russian oil export prices in response to a planned European embargo in March, they pledged to squeeze revenues to Russia's war machine, while avoiding a devastating oil price spike.

The price cap is "an unhappy compromise that will do very little to cut Russia's oil revenue" from current levels, said Ben Cahill, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Officials at the U.S. Treasury, the driving force behind the G7 price cap, sought to evenly weigh reducing Russia's revenues and maintaining supply, though market pricing influenced this at times, a senior Treasury official told Reuters. Analysts also attribute the drop in global oil prices to a weakening global economy, COVID-19 lockdowns in China and the OPEC+ group's decision to maintain steady production.At the current price cap level, Russia would earn oil export revenues of about $10 billion to $15 billion a month, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.from the International Energy Agency , as Brent topped $120.

In July, Adeyemo said the goal was to eliminate the "risk premium," or price increase that Russia had introduced into theIf Moscow makes good onto curtail production rather than sell oil to countries observing the cap, prices could shoot higher, and that is where it could get tricky for the United States and G7 allies.

 

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Production costs are ~ $12

Putin still makes $100 billion a year. Got to bring it down to $30 and eventually to ZERO!

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