The pending sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, dropped by 5.2% from February to March. Month over month, contract signings fell in three US regions, but increased slightly in the South. Year-over-year pending transactions fell by 23.2%. Pending home sales retreated in all four regions compared to one year ago.
Its estimate is that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will progressively drop to 6% this year and to 5.6% in 2024. Housing starts will fall from last year by 7.3% in 2023, to 1.44 million, and then increase 6.9% in 2024, to 1.54 million, according to the updated forecast. Job gains and improving interest rates are key to boosting sales of existing homes. NAR projected that sales will see steady improvement in the coming months. But it said annual sales will drop in 2023 by 9.3% from 2022 to to 4.
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